HURST CYCLE SCREENER GUIDE

Background: Hurst Cycle Theory

In 1970, aerospace engineer J.M. Hurst published Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing, presenting evidence that stock prices contain predictable periodic cycles. After years of statistical analysis, Hurst identified a hierarchy of cycles that nest within each other, from short-term (5-week) to long-term (54-month). His key insight was that the best buying opportunities occur when multiple cycle troughs converge near the same date — a point where several cycles are simultaneously turning upward.

Hurst's nominal model defines six primary cycles measured in calendar days. These are not exact periods but statistical averages around which actual cycles fluctuate:

Each cycle is roughly 2× the length of the next shorter cycle. Hurst observed that these cycles are present across most actively traded equities, though their strength and regularity varies by stock.

How This Dashboard Works

The screener analyses approximately 220 instruments — US equities, ASX equities, US ETFs, and commodity futures — using 5 years of daily price data. The analysis uses a two-stage approach faithful to Hurst's methodology:

Stage 1 — Cycle Discovery (FFT): Fast Fourier Transform spectral analysis is performed on the detrended price series to identify which of Hurst's nominal cycles are present and their approximate period and strength.

Stage 2 — Hierarchical Trough Detection & Projection: Following Hurst's own methodology, troughs are detected using hierarchical nesting. First, base-level troughs (local price minima) are identified across the full price history. These are then promoted upward through the cycle hierarchy: a subset of base troughs become 20-week troughs, a subset of those become 40-week troughs, and a subset of those become 18-month troughs. This enforces Hurst's Principle of Synchronicity — every longer-cycle trough is also a shorter-cycle trough. The average spacing between the last 4 trough intervals (the “recent wavelength”) is then used to project the next trough forward. The shorter cycles (5-week, 10-week) use FFT phase for projection, as their higher frequency provides sufficient data for reliable spectral estimates.

Core Thesis: Accumulate at 20w/40w Troughs, Reduce at 20w/40w Peaks

The dashboard is built around a single clear thesis: the most actionable trading signals come from the 20-week and 40-week cycle troughs (accumulation points) and peaks (reduction points). These cycles are long enough to produce meaningful price moves but short enough to give you actionable timing. Everything on the dashboard serves this workflow.

Action Distribution

Above each market table, a row of chips shows the percentage breakdown of instruments by their current action state: ACCUMULATE, REDUCE, HOLD, AVOID, and IGNORE. A market skewed toward ACCUMULATE suggests broad 20w/40w trough convergence; skewed toward REDUCE suggests most instruments are peaking.

Understanding the Dashboard Table

Rows are visually prioritised: ACCUMULATE rows have a green left border, REDUCE rows have a red left border. HOLD rows are slightly dimmed, AVOID rows are more dimmed, and IGNORE rows are heavily dimmed to keep focus on actionable instruments.

The Detail Panel

Click any row to open the detail panel — a fixed drawer that slides up from the bottom of the screen. The table stays in place so you can quickly switch between instruments without losing your scroll position. Press Escape or click CLOSE to dismiss the drawer.

The price chart displays the closing price with nested Hurst envelopes for the 40-week (yellow) and 20-week (green) cycles. Each envelope shows a dashed centre line (the cycle's moving average) with upper and lower bands. Band width uses Hurst's method: half the measured peak-to-trough swing amplitude, giving bands that reflect the stock's actual volatility at each cycle timeframe. The centre line is extended towards the present using progressive MA extrapolation (full → half → quarter period). Coloured triangle markers show historical cycle troughs pinned to actual price lows: magenta = 18-month, yellow = 40-week, green = 20-week. These can be toggled on/off via the chart legend. Visually confirming that trough markers align with real swing lows gives you confidence in the cycle's reliability for that stock.

The price chart includes a measurement tool: click any point on the price line, then click a second point forward in time to see the number of calendar days and percentage change between the two prices. The connector line is coloured green for gains and red for losses. Press Escape to clear the measurement.

The power spectrum chart shows the FFT output with pink dashed lines marking Hurst's nominal cycle periods. Peaks near these lines confirm that the stock exhibits those cycles.

The cycle table shows each detected cycle with the following columns: Detected is the measured cycle length in calendar days — for pinned cycles (20wk, 40wk, 18mo) this is the average of the last 4 trough-to-trough intervals; for FFT cycles (5wk, 10wk) it is the spectral peak period converted to calendar days. Nominal is Hurst's model period from Table II-1. Match shows how closely the detected period matches the nominal. The remaining columns show current phase, projected trough timing range, and spectral power.

Action States

Every instrument is classified into one of five action states based on its 20w or 40w cycle position:

The number beside ACCUMULATE and REDUCE badges is a confidence score (0–100) based on alignment, cyclicality, cycle weight (40w > 20w), multi-cycle confluence, and 18mo alignment. Click any row to open the detail drawer and see the specific Action Factors that drove the classification.

Why 20w and 40w specifically: The 5-week cycle is too short-term and noisy for swing trades. The 18-month and 54-month cycles are too long to time entries against (a 545-day cycle has an 80+ day trough window). The 20-week and 40-week cycles are the sweet spot — long enough to produce meaningful moves, short enough for precise timing. The 18-month cycle is used as a conviction modifier: when it's rising at the same time as a 20w/40w trough, you get the star, indicating a major cycle low.

Why envelope position doesn't gate action: The envelope is measured against the dominant cycle, which is often not the 20w/40w cycle driving the action. Gating on envelope would cause false rejections when envelope is fit to a different cycle. Envelope is shown as context only.

Note: These are cycle-based timing signals, not investment recommendations. They indicate what Hurst's cycle framework suggests about timing — all trading decisions should incorporate additional fundamental and technical analysis.

Using the Dashboard for Buy-Low/Sell-High Decisions

1. Start with the default view: The ACTION filter is on by default, showing only ACCUMULATE and REDUCE instruments — the ones where action is warranted today. ACCUMULATE rows appear first, sorted by soonest trough.

2. Check the trend: An ACCUMULATE in STRONG BULL or BULL trend is a higher-conviction setup than one in STRONG BEAR. Hurst cycles are most reliable when aligned with the secular trend.

3. Look for the star: A ★ on an ACCUMULATE or REDUCE badge means the 18-month major cycle is also aligned, suggesting a higher-magnitude move ahead. Prioritise these.

4. Confirm with the chart: Click any row to open the detail drawer. Check that historical trough markers align with actual swing lows on the price chart — if past 20w/40w troughs have been reliable on this instrument, the forward projection is more trustworthy.

5. Check the 18mo context: In the detail drawer, the 18mo Context stat shows where the 18-month cycle is in its own phase. 18mo RISING + 20w ACCUMULATE is a stronger setup than 18mo FALLING + 20w ACCUMULATE.

6. Monitor HOLD positions: Switch the filter to ALL to see instruments in HOLD state (past trough, cycle working in your favour). These don't require action but you can track when they transition to REDUCE.

7. Plan the exit: When an instrument transitions from HOLD to REDUCE, the 20w/40w cycle is peaking and the cycle tailwind is ending.

Data & Refresh Schedule

Price data is sourced from Yahoo Finance (end-of-day closes, 5-year history). The screener refreshes automatically on weekdays only: ASX data at 08:00 UTC (2 hours after ASX close) and US + ETF data at 23:00 UTC (2 hours after US close). Each market is refreshed once per day. You can also trigger a manual refresh of all markets using the REFRESH button.